Stal Mielec 62%Draw 17%Polonia Bytom 21%Expected goals 2.39 – 1.34
68%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Stal Mielec to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultStal Mielec to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.89
Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Sunday 16 August: Stal Mielec v Polonia Bytom in the I Liga, played at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu. In the table, Stal Mielec are 11th, lower half, on 19 points after 14 matches; Polonia Bytom are 3rd (among the top four) with 24.
Current form
Stal Mielec, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Stal Rzeszów, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Polonia Bytom, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Pogoń Siedlce, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Head to head
When they last met (24 May 2026) it ended Stal Mielec 4–1 Polonia Bytom.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Stal Mielec 2.4 xG, Polonia Bytom 1.3 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 68% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Stal Mielec 62%, draw 17%, Polonia Bytom 21%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.40.
Price worth noting: Stal Mielec to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Stal Mielec 2–1 Polonia Bytom. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Stal Mielec62%fair 1.62 · @1.95
Draw17%fair 5.90 · @3.75
Polonia Bytom21%fair 4.67 · @3.10
3.73Expected goals
2.39Stal Mielec xG
1.34Polonia Bytom xG
68%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Stal Mielec 2.4 – 1.3 Polonia Bytom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
On our numbers Stal Mielec have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Polonia Bytom 21%.
How many goals will there be in Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
Our predicted score is Stal Mielec 2–1 Polonia Bytom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom (I Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
