Value bet: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win @ 2.60 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win ✗42% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.53
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki welcome Nieciecza to Stadion Miejski for a I Liga fixture on Friday 28 August (17:15 WAT). In the table, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are 7th, upper half, on 21 points after 14 matches; Nieciecza are 6th (upper half) with 22. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, last 5: DDWWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Polonia Bytom, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Nieciecza, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Polonia Warszawa, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Nieciecza.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.4 xG, Nieciecza 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 42%, draw 21%, Nieciecza 37%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Nieciecza. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki42%fair 2.37 · @2.60
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.50
Nieciecza37%fair 2.72 · @2.35
2.78Expected goals
1.45Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki xG
1.33Nieciecza xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.4 – 1.3 Nieciecza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win✗
42%
2.37
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Draw no bet
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw no bet)
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Nieciecza +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to score first
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki / FT Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki✗
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.53
–
Recent results
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki – last 6
DDWWWL
22 Aug
@ Polonia Bytom
2–2
D
14 Aug
vs Stal Rzeszów
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Miedz Legnica
1–0
W
2 Aug
vs Puszcza Niepołomice
1–0
W
25 Jul
@ Lechia Gdansk
3–0
W
18 Jul
@ Legia Warszawa
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nieciecza – last 6
LLLWWL
22 Aug
vs Polonia Warszawa
1–3
L
16 Aug
@ ŁKS Łódź
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs Warta Poznań
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Pogoń Siedlce
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs Ruch Chorzów
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Busko-Zdroj
1–6
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Nieciecza.
What is the prediction for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
On our numbers Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nieciecza 37%.
How many goals will there be in Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
Our predicted score is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Nieciecza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza (I Liga) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
