Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Picks by market
ResultLechia Gdansk to win ✓61% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.25
Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 19 September the I Liga brings Lechia Gdansk against Stal Mielec at Polsat Plus Arena. Kick-off: 11:30 WAT. In the table, Lechia Gdansk are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 14 matches; Stal Mielec are 11th (lower half) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lechia Gdansk, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Miedz Legnica, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Stal Mielec, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Nieciecza, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lechia Gdansk, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Stal Mielec.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lechia Gdansk 2.1 xG, Stal Mielec 1.2 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 64% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lechia Gdansk 61%, draw 15%, Stal Mielec 24%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.53.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lechia Gdansk to win (61%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Stal Mielec. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lechia Gdansk61%fair 1.63 · @1.95
Draw15%fair 6.77 · @3.50
Stal Mielec24%fair 4.18 · @3.10
3.31Expected goals
2.11Lechia Gdansk xG
1.20Stal Mielec xG
63%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Lechia Gdansk 2.1 – 1.2 Stal Mielec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lechia Gdansk to win✓
61%
1.63
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.53
Draw no bet
Lechia Gdansk (draw no bet)✓
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Stal Mielec +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
First team to score
Lechia Gdansk to score first
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Lechia Gdansk ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lechia Gdansk / FT Lechia Gdansk✓
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.25
–
Recent results
Lechia Gdansk – last 6
WLWWWL
13 Sep
vs Miedz Legnica
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Nieciecza
1–2
L
1 Sep
@ Kluczbork
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Polonia Warszawa
4–2
W
21 Aug
vs Pogoń Siedlce
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Ruch Chorzów
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Stal Mielec – last 6
LDDLLW
14 Sep
vs Nieciecza
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Odra Opole
1–1
D
2 Sep
@ Górnik Łęczna
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Pogoń Siedlce
0–2
L
23 Aug
@ ŁKS Łódź
0–4
L
16 Aug
vs Polonia Bytom
5–2
W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec.
What is the prediction for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our pick is Lechia Gdansk to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
On our numbers Lechia Gdansk have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Stal Mielec 24%.
How many goals will there be in Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our predicted score is Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Stal Mielec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec (I Liga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Polsat Plus Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
