Stal Mielec 31%Draw 21%Warta Poznań 47%Expected goals 1.66 – 2.06
66%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Warta Poznań to win @ 2.25 – our chance 47% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultWarta Poznań to win ✗47% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.39
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.69
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Stal Mielec welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu for a I Liga fixture on Sunday 11 October (11:00 WAT). In the table, Stal Mielec are 11th, lower half, on 19 points after 14 matches; Warta Poznań are 9th (upper half) with 19. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Stal Mielec, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 1–7 defeat to Lechia Gdansk, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Warta Poznań, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Chrobry Głogów, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Warta Poznań, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.3 for Stal Mielec.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Stal Mielec 1.7 xG, Warta Poznań 2.1 xG – a total near 3.7. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 72% and GG at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Stal Mielec 31%, draw 21%, Warta Poznań 47%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Warta Poznań to win @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (66%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Stal Mielec 1–2 Warta Poznań. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Stal Mielec31%fair 3.21 · @2.62
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.30
Warta Poznań47%fair 2.11 · @2.25
3.72Expected goals
1.66Stal Mielec xG
2.06Warta Poznań xG
66%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–18%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
0–25%
From our goals model: Stal Mielec 1.7 – 2.1 Warta Poznań expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Warta Poznań to win✗
47%
2.11
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.53
1.50
Draw no bet
Warta Poznań (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Stal Mielec +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
First team to score
Warta Poznań to score first✗
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Warta Poznań ahead at half-time✗
38%
2.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Warta Poznań / FT Warta Poznań✗
30%
3.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.69
–
Recent results
Stal Mielec – last 6
LLDDLL
19 Sep
@ Lechia Gdansk
1–7
L
14 Sep
vs Nieciecza
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Odra Opole
1–1
D
2 Sep
@ Górnik Łęczna
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Pogoń Siedlce
0–2
L
23 Aug
@ ŁKS Łódź
0–4
L
0.8Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Warta Poznań – last 6
WWWLLW
3 Oct
@ Chrobry Głogów
3–1
W
18 Sep
vs Puszcza Niepołomice
3–2
W
12 Sep
vs Arka Gdynia
3–0
W
4 Sep
@ Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Miedz Legnica
1–2
L
21 Aug
@ Chrobry Głogów
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań.
What is the prediction for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
On our numbers Stal Mielec have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Warta Poznań 47%.
How many goals will there be in Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our predicted score is Stal Mielec 1–2 Warta Poznań, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań (I Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
