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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Charleroi v KV Mechelen: numbers & prediction

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Charleroi

WWLWD
2–0
FT

KV Mechelen

DLDLL
Charleroi 61%Draw 24%KV Mechelen 15% Expected goals 2.06 – 0.96
85%
Betarazi pick

Charleroi or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1

Value bet: Charleroi to win @ 1.77 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultCharleroi to win ✓61% · @1.77
Double chanceCharleroi or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 22 August the Jupiler Pro League brings Charleroi against KV Mechelen at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off: 17:15 WAT. In the table, Charleroi are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 11 matches; KV Mechelen are 11th (lower half) with 12. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Charleroi, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Lommel United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

KV Mechelen, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Standard Liege, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Charleroi, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for KV Mechelen.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Charleroi 2.1 xG, KV Mechelen 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Charleroi 61%, draw 24%, KV Mechelen 15%.
  • Lower-risk option: Charleroi or draw (85%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.70.
  • Price worth noting: Charleroi to win @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Charleroi or draw (85%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Charleroi 2–0 KV Mechelen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Charleroi61%fair 1.63 · @1.77
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.65
KV Mechelen15%fair 6.57 · @4.33
3.02Expected goals
2.06Charleroi xG
0.96KV Mechelen xG
58%Both score
55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%

From our goals model: Charleroi 2.1 – 1.0 KV Mechelen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCharleroi to win ✓61%1.631.77 ▲
Double chanceCharleroi or draw ✓85%1.181.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗58%1.741.70
Draw no betCharleroi (draw no bet) ✓80%1.25–
Asian handicapCharleroi -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓63%1.59–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78%1.291.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗55%1.811.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓66%1.511.38
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓82%1.221.14
First team to scoreCharleroi to score first ✓65%1.54–
Half-time resultCharleroi ahead at half-time ✓46%2.19–
Half-time / full-timeHT Charleroi / FT Charleroi ✓40%2.48–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.06–

Recent results

Charleroi – last 6

WWLWDL
16 Aug@ Lommel United1–0W
9 Augvs OH Leuven3–1W
1 Augvs Rayo Vallecano2–3L
25 Julvs Seraing United2–1W
25 Jul@ Lens2–2D
17 Jul@ Feyenoord1–3L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

KV Mechelen – last 6

DLDLLW
16 Augvs Standard Liege3–3D
9 Aug@ Gent0–2L
1 Augvs Dunkerque0–0D
25 Jul@ Willem II0–1L
18 Julvs ADO Den Haag2–3L
15 Jul@ Heist1–0W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Charleroi and KV Mechelen.

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen head-to-head page →

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Union St. Gilloise11920+2329
2Club Brugge KV11911+1828
3Gent11911+1428
4Charleroi11902+1327
5Anderlecht11623+220
6Lommel United11443+216
7Genk11434+315
8Standard Liege11434+215
9KVC Westerlo11425-414
10OH Leuven11335-512
11KV Mechelen11335-712
12St. Truiden11326011
13Antwerp11326-611
14Zulte Waregem11326-711
15SK Beveren11317-1010
16Cercle Brugge11236-89
17RAAL La Louvière11218-117
18Kortrijk11119-194

More Jupiler Pro League predictions

League hub
FT Zulte Waregem4 SK Beveren0 150%2.05X21%3.55229%3.30 1.3–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.35 ✗
FT Antwerp4 Genk4 141%3.10X21%3.50238%2.20 1.6–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?

Our pick is Charleroi or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?

On our numbers Charleroi have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and KV Mechelen 15%.

How many goals will there be in Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?

Our predicted score is Charleroi 2–0 KV Mechelen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.