Baník Ostrava 15%Draw 20%Sparta Praha 64%Expected goals 0.85 – 2.00
85%
Betarazi pick
Sparta Praha or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Sparta Praha to win @ 1.70 – our chance 64% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSparta Praha to win ✗64% · @1.70
Double chanceSparta Praha or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.17
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 18 October the Czech Liga brings Baník Ostrava against Sparta Praha at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Baník Ostrava are 13th, lower half, on 14 points after 13 matches; Sparta Praha are 4th (among the top four) with 24.
Current form
Baník Ostrava, last 5: LDDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Bohemians 1905, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Sparta Praha, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Lillestrom, at home. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Sparta Praha, collecting 2.7 points per game to 0.5 for Baník Ostrava.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Baník Ostrava 0.8 xG, Sparta Praha 2.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Baník Ostrava 15%, draw 20%, Sparta Praha 64%.
Lower-risk option: Sparta Praha or draw (85%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Sparta Praha to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sparta Praha or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Baník Ostrava 0–2 Sparta Praha. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Baník Ostrava15%fair 6.52 · @4.20
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.80
Sparta Praha64%fair 1.55 · @1.70
2.85Expected goals
0.85Baník Ostrava xG
2.00Sparta Praha xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–110%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Baník Ostrava 0.8 – 2.0 Sparta Praha expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sparta Praha to win✗
64%
1.55
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Sparta Praha or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.57
Draw no bet
Sparta Praha (draw no bet)
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Sparta Praha -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Sparta Praha to score first✗
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Sparta Praha ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sparta Praha / FT Sparta Praha✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
Baník Ostrava – last 6
LDDDLL
10 Oct
@ Bohemians 1905
0–1
L
3 Oct
@ GKS Katowice
1–1
D
23 Sep
@ Kladno
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Slovácko
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Pardubice
1–2
L
9 Sep
@ FK Jablonec
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sparta Praha – last 6
DWWWWW
15 Oct
vs Lillestrom
1–1
D
11 Oct
vs Pardubice
2–0
W
2 Oct
vs Vysočina Jihlava
5–3
W
20 Sep
@ Sigma Olomouc
3–0
W
16 Sep
@ Ararat-Armenia
4–1
W
12 Sep
vs FK Jablonec
2–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha.
What is the prediction for Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Our pick is Sparta Praha or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
On our numbers Baník Ostrava have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sparta Praha 64%.
How many goals will there be in Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Our predicted score is Baník Ostrava 0–2 Sparta Praha, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha (Czech Liga) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
