Value bet: Paks to win @ 1.88 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPaks to win ✓61% · @1.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗70% · @1.38
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗72% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.05
Paks vs Ujpest: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Paks welcome Ujpest for a NB I fixture on Friday 21 August (16:30 WAT). In the table, Paks are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Ujpest are 6th (upper half) with 18. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Paks, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Puskas Academy, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Ujpest, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with MTK Budapest, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Momentum favours Ujpest, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Paks.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paks 2.6 xG, Ujpest 1.5 xG – a total near 4.1. That is an open game on paper: 72% for three or more goals, 70% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paks 61%, draw 17%, Ujpest 22%.
GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.38.
Price worth noting: Paks to win @1.88 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (72%, odds 1.42 – longer than our fair 1.39, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paks 2–1 Ujpest. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paks61%fair 1.64 · @1.88
Draw17%fair 5.81 · @3.90
Ujpest22%fair 4.61 · @3.35
4.14Expected goals
2.61Paks xG
1.53Ujpest xG
70%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
3–17%
1–16%
2–26%
3–26%
2–05%
From our goals model: Paks 2.6 – 1.5 Ujpest expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paks to win✓
61%
1.64
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
70%
1.43
1.38
Draw no bet
Paks (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Paks -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
2.05 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.28
First team to score
Paks to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Paks ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paks / FT Paks✓
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.05
–
Recent results
Paks – last 6
LDLDWL
16 Aug
@ Puskas Academy
2–3
L
9 Aug
vs Budapest Honved
2–2
D
3 Aug
@ Zalaegerszegi TE
2–5
L
30 Jul
@ Panathinaikos
2–2
D
26 Jul
vs Ferencvarosi TC
4–2
W
23 Jul
vs Panathinaikos
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ujpest – last 6
DWWLWD
15 Aug
vs MTK Budapest
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Kisvarda FC
4–2
W
2 Aug
vs Debreceni VSC
4–2
W
24 Jul
@ Nyiregyhaza
1–2
L
18 Jul
vs Radnik Bijeljina
2–0
W
11 Jul
@ Diosgyori VTK
2–2
D
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paks and Ujpest.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Paks vs Ujpest?
On our numbers Paks have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Ujpest 22%.
How many goals will there be in Paks vs Ujpest?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paks vs Ujpest?
Our predicted score is Paks 2–1 Ujpest, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Paks vs Ujpest?
Paks vs Ujpest (NB I) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
