Value bet: Fakel to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAkhmat to win ✗39% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.05
Fakel vs Akhmat: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Akhmat travel to face Fakel on Monday 10 August in the Premier League, with Fakel Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 17:30 WAT. In the table, Fakel are 16th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 14 matches; Akhmat are 12th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Fakel, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Dynamo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Akhmat, last 5: DLDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FC Krasnodar, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Akhmat, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Fakel.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fakel 1.2 xG, Akhmat 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fakel 32%, draw 28%, Akhmat 39%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.92.
Price worth noting: Fakel to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (69%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fakel 1–1 Akhmat. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fakel32%fair 3.08 · @3.40
Draw28%fair 3.54 · @3.32
Akhmat39%fair 2.54 · @2.24
2.47Expected goals
1.18Fakel xG
1.29Akhmat xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.2 – 1.3 Akhmat expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Akhmat to win✗
39%
2.54
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.39
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.92 ▲
Draw no bet
Akhmat (draw no bet)
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Fakel +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.64
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.01
First team to score
Akhmat to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Akhmat / FT Akhmat✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.05
–
Recent results
Fakel – last 6
LLLLDW
5 Aug
vs Dynamo
0–1
L
2 Aug
@ FC Krasnodar
2–3
L
25 Jul
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–2
L
15 Jul
@ FC Rostov
1–2
L
11 Jul
@ Akron
1–1
D
7 Jul
vs FC Rostov
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Akhmat – last 6
DLDWDW
5 Aug
@ FC Krasnodar
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Spartak Moscow
1–2
L
26 Jul
@ Lokomotiv
1–1
D
11 Jul
@ IMT Novi Beograd
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ Novi Pazar
1–1
D
29 Jun
vs Borac Banja Luka
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and Akhmat.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Fakel vs Akhmat?
On our numbers Fakel have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Akhmat 39%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Akhmat?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Akhmat?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Akhmat, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Akhmat?
Fakel vs Akhmat (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 10 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
