Krylia Sovetov 63%Draw 20%Rodina Moskva 17%Expected goals 2.16 – 1.02
83%
Betarazi pick
Krylia Sovetov or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
1
Value bet: Krylia Sovetov to win @ 1.93 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultKrylia Sovetov to win ✓63% · @1.93
Double chanceKrylia Sovetov or draw ✓83% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.64
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.11
Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Friday 11 September: Krylia Sovetov v Rodina Moskva in the Premier League, played at Samara Arena. In the table, Krylia Sovetov are 7th, upper half, on 18 points after 14 matches; Rodina Moskva are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Krylia Sovetov, last 5: DDDWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with FC Krasnodar, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Rodina Moskva, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Dinamo Makhachkala, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 3.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Krylia Sovetov, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.2 for Rodina Moskva.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Krylia Sovetov 2.2 xG, Rodina Moskva 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Krylia Sovetov 63%, draw 20%, Rodina Moskva 17%.
Lower-risk option: Krylia Sovetov or draw (83%) at 1.28.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.64.
Price worth noting: Krylia Sovetov to win @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Krylia Sovetov or draw (83%, odds 1.28 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Krylia Sovetov 2–1 Rodina Moskva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Krylia Sovetov63%fair 1.59 · @1.93
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.74
Rodina Moskva17%fair 6.03 · @3.90
3.18Expected goals
2.16Krylia Sovetov xG
1.02Rodina Moskva xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Krylia Sovetov 2.2 – 1.0 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Krylia Sovetov to win✓
63%
1.59
1.93 ▲
Double chance
Krylia Sovetov or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.64
Draw no bet
Krylia Sovetov (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Krylia Sovetov -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.21
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.39
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.12
First team to score
Krylia Sovetov to score first
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Krylia Sovetov ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Krylia Sovetov / FT Krylia Sovetov✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Krylia Sovetov – last 6
DDDWDL
5 Sep
vs FC Krasnodar
2–2
D
2 Sep
@ Baltika
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Akhmat
3–3
D
23 Aug
@ Akron
3–0
W
19 Aug
vs Zenit
0–0
D
16 Aug
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Rodina Moskva – last 6
LLLLLD
6 Sep
@ Dinamo Makhachkala
0–2
L
2 Sep
@ Spartak Moscow
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Baltika
0–3
L
23 Aug
@ Dynamo
1–3
L
18 Aug
vs FC Orenburg
1–4
L
15 Aug
vs Akron
3–3
D
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Krylia Sovetov and Rodina Moskva.
What is the prediction for Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Krylia Sovetov or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Krylia Sovetov have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Rodina Moskva 17%.
How many goals will there be in Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Krylia Sovetov 2–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Samara Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
