Derby vs West Brom: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derby welcome West Brom to Pride Park for a Championship fixture on Wednesday 9 September (19:45 WAT). In the table, Derby are 23rd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; West Brom are 5th (upper half) with 28. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Derby, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to West Ham, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
West Brom, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Watford, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours West Brom, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Derby.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derby 1.4 xG, West Brom 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derby 37%, draw 23%, West Brom 40%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derby 1–1 West Brom. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derby37%fair 2.70 · @2.80
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.30
West Brom40%fair 2.48 · @2.44
2.78Expected goals
1.35Derby xG
1.43West Brom xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Derby 1.4 – 1.4 West Brom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
West Brom to win✓
40%
2.48
2.44
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.70
Draw no bet
West Brom (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Derby +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.11
First team to score
West Brom to score first✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT West Brom / FT West Brom✓
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.71
–
Recent results
Derby – last 6
LWLDLL
5 Sep
@ West Ham
0–3
L
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Swansea
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cardiff
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Charlton
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Lincoln
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
West Brom – last 6
WDLLWW
5 Sep
vs Watford
1–0
W
2 Sep
vs Charlton
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Middlesbrough
1–3
L
26 Aug
@ Newcastle
2–3
L
23 Aug
vs Burnley
3–1
W
15 Aug
@ Norwich
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and West Brom.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Derby vs West Brom?
On our numbers Derby have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and West Brom 40%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs West Brom?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs West Brom?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 West Brom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Derby vs West Brom?
Derby vs West Brom (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
