Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultSouthampton to win ✓66% · @1.57
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓89% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Southampton vs Portsmouth: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Southampton welcome Portsmouth to St. Mary's Stadium for a Championship fixture on Sunday 11 October (12:00 WAT). In the table, Southampton are 7th, upper half, on 24 points after 15 matches; Portsmouth are 11th (upper half) with 22. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Southampton, last 5: LWWDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Wrexham, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Portsmouth, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Blackburn, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Southampton, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Portsmouth.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Southampton 2.3 xG, Portsmouth 0.9 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Southampton 66%, draw 23%, Portsmouth 11%.
Lower-risk option: Southampton or draw (89%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Southampton to win (66%, odds 1.57 – longer than our fair 1.52, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Southampton 2–0 Portsmouth. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Southampton66%fair 1.52 · @1.57
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @4.00
Portsmouth11%fair 9.07 · @5.00
3.20Expected goals
2.29Southampton xG
0.91Portsmouth xG
59%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
2–110%
1–09%
1–18%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Southampton 2.3 – 0.9 Portsmouth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✓
66%
1.52
1.57
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.70
Draw no bet
Southampton (draw no bet)✓
86%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Southampton -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
First team to score
Southampton to score first✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✓
45%
2.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.28
–
Recent results
Southampton – last 6
LWWDDW
19 Sep
@ Wrexham
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Bristol City
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Swansea
3–1
W
5 Sep
@ Lincoln
1–1
D
1 Sep
@ Birmingham
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Millwall
5–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Portsmouth – last 6
DDWLLW
19 Sep
vs Blackburn
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Charlton
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Cardiff
2–0
W
1 Sep
vs Derby
0–2
L
29 Aug
@ Bristol City
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Lincoln
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Portsmouth.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Our pick is Southampton to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Southampton vs Portsmouth?
On our numbers Southampton have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Portsmouth 11%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Portsmouth?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Portsmouth, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Southampton vs Portsmouth (Championship) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Mary's Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
