Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Bolton to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBolton to win ✗41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.59
Derby vs Bolton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derby welcome Bolton to Pride Park for a Championship fixture on Friday 6 November (21:00 WAT). In the table, Derby are 23rd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Bolton are 18th (lower half) with 17.
Current form
Derby, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Norwich, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Bolton, last 5: WLLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Charlton, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Bolton, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Derby.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derby 1.4 xG, Bolton 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derby 37%, draw 22%, Bolton 41%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Bolton to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derby 1–1 Bolton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derby37%fair 2.68 · @2.50
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.40
Bolton41%fair 2.44 · @2.70
2.96Expected goals
1.44Derby xG
1.52Bolton xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Derby 1.4 – 1.5 Bolton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bolton to win✗
41%
2.44
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.53
Draw no bet
Bolton (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Derby +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
First team to score
Bolton to score first✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bolton / FT Bolton✗
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.59
–
Recent results
Derby – last 6
LLDLLD
3 Nov
vs Norwich
0–4
L
31 Oct
@ Millwall
1–4
L
24 Oct
@ Sheffield Utd
1–1
D
17 Oct
vs Stoke City
0–1
L
14 Oct
@ QPR
1–4
L
10 Oct
vs Wrexham
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bolton – last 6
WLLDWL
3 Nov
@ Charlton
1–0
W
31 Oct
vs Bristol City
2–3
L
23 Oct
vs Middlesbrough
1–5
L
17 Oct
@ Southampton
0–0
D
13 Oct
@ Wolves
3–1
W
10 Oct
vs Stoke City
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Bolton.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
On our numbers Derby have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bolton 41%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Bolton?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Bolton?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Bolton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Bolton?
Derby vs Bolton (Championship) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
