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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Rodina Moskva v Spartak Moscow: numbers & prediction

Cup · Russia · Yantar Stadium

Rodina Moskva

LLDLL
2–4
FT

Spartak Moscow

DWWLW
Rodina Moskva 17%Draw 20%Spartak Moscow 63% Expected goals 1.32 – 2.57
69%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.44Odds

Picks by market

ResultSpartak Moscow to win ✓63% · @1.46
Double chanceSpartak Moscow or draw ✓83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.21

Rodina Moskva vs Spartak Moscow: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

18:45 WAT, Thursday 15 October: Rodina Moskva v Spartak Moscow in the Cup, played at Yantar Stadium.

Current form

Rodina Moskva, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to CSKA Moscow, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Spartak Moscow, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Krylia Sovetov, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Spartak Moscow, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.2 for Rodina Moskva.

Head to head

When they last met (2 Sep 2026) it ended Spartak Moscow 3–1 Rodina Moskva. The last 2 head-to-heads: Rodina Moskva 0 wins, Spartak Moscow 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Rodina Moskva 1.3 xG, Spartak Moscow 2.6 xG – a total near 3.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 69% and GG at 62%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Rodina Moskva 17%, draw 20%, Spartak Moscow 63%.
  • Lower-risk option: Spartak Moscow or draw (83%) at 1.13.
  • GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.62.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rodina Moskva 1–2 Spartak Moscow. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Rodina Moskva17%fair 6.00 · @6.35
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @4.90
Spartak Moscow63%fair 1.59 · @1.46
3.89Expected goals
1.32Rodina Moskva xG
2.57Spartak Moscow xG
62%Both score
69%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–29%
1–38%
1–17%
0–27%
2–26%
0–36%

From our goals model: Rodina Moskva 1.3 – 2.6 Spartak Moscow expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSpartak Moscow to win ✓63%1.591.46
Double chanceSpartak Moscow or draw ✓83%1.201.13
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓62%1.611.62
Draw no betSpartak Moscow (draw no bet) ✓79%1.26–
Asian handicapSpartak Moscow -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.55–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.161.10
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69%1.451.44
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗51%1.951.67
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗70%1.441.24
First team to scoreSpartak Moscow to score first65%1.55–
Half-time resultSpartak Moscow ahead at half-time ✗49%2.04–
Half-time / full-timeHT Spartak Moscow / FT Spartak Moscow ✗43%2.34–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.21–

Recent results

Rodina Moskva – last 6

LLDLLL
11 Oct@ CSKA Moscow0–3L
4 Oct@ Dynamo2–3L
16 Sepvs Rubin1–1D
11 Sep@ Krylia Sovetov1–2L
6 Sep@ Dinamo Makhachkala0–2L
2 Sep@ Spartak Moscow1–3L
0.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Spartak Moscow – last 6

DWWLWD
10 Oct@ Krylia Sovetov1–1D
16 Sepvs Fakel1–0W
13 Sepvs FC Rostov3–0W
6 Sep@ Dynamo1–2L
2 Sepvs Rodina Moskva3–1W
30 Augvs FC Orenburg1–1D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

2 Sep 2026Spartak Moscow v Rodina Moskva3–1
25 Jul 2026Spartak Moscow v Rodina Moskva3–0
Rodina Moskva vs Spartak Moscow head-to-head page →

More Cup predictions

League hub
FT Rubin1 FC Orenburg4 145%1.97X21%3.54233%3.90 1.7–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.32 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rodina Moskva vs Spartak Moscow?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Spartak Moscow?

On our numbers Rodina Moskva have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Spartak Moscow 63%.

How many goals will there be in Rodina Moskva vs Spartak Moscow?

We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Rodina Moskva vs Spartak Moscow?

Our predicted score is Rodina Moskva 1–2 Spartak Moscow, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.

When is Rodina Moskva vs Spartak Moscow?

Rodina Moskva vs Spartak Moscow (Cup) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Yantar Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.