Value bet: Fakel to win @ 3.24 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAkhmat to win ✗40% · @2.33
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.96
Fakel vs Akhmat: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Akhmat travel to face Fakel on Tuesday 27 October in the Cup, with Fakel Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT.
Current form
Fakel, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Rodina Moskva, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Akhmat, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FC Orenburg, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fakel, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Akhmat.
Head to head
When they last met (18 Aug 2026) it ended Akhmat 2–1 Fakel. The last 2 head-to-heads: Fakel 0 wins, Akhmat 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 1.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fakel 1.2 xG, Akhmat 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fakel 36%, draw 23%, Akhmat 40%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.81.
Price worth noting: Fakel to win @3.24 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.23). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fakel 1–1 Akhmat. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fakel36%fair 2.75 · @3.24
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.24
Akhmat40%fair 2.47 · @2.33
2.55Expected goals
1.23Fakel xG
1.32Akhmat xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.2 – 1.3 Akhmat expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Fakel vs Akhmat?
On our numbers Fakel have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Akhmat 40%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Akhmat?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Akhmat?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Akhmat, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Akhmat?
Fakel vs Akhmat (Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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