Newport County 21%Draw 21%Chesterfield 58%Expected goals 0.96 – 1.81
79%
Betarazi pick
Chesterfield or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Chesterfield to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultChesterfield to win ✗58% · @1.95
Double chanceChesterfield or draw ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.15
Newport County vs Chesterfield: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 30 October the League Two brings Newport County against Chesterfield at Rodney Parade. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, Newport County are 14th, lower half, on 18 points after 14 matches; Chesterfield are 10th (upper half) with 19. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Newport County, last 5: LDDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cheltenham, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Chesterfield, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Crewe, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newport County 1.0 xG, Chesterfield 1.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newport County 21%, draw 21%, Chesterfield 58%.
Lower-risk option: Chesterfield or draw (79%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Chesterfield to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Chesterfield or draw (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newport County 0–1 Chesterfield. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newport County21%fair 4.83 · @3.40
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.30
Chesterfield58%fair 1.72 · @1.95
2.77Expected goals
0.96Newport County xG
1.81Chesterfield xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–111%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–06%
0–36%
From our goals model: Newport County 1.0 – 1.8 Chesterfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chesterfield to win✗
58%
1.72
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Chesterfield or draw✗
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
1.67
Draw no bet
Chesterfield (draw no bet)✗
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Newport County +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
Chesterfield to score first✗
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Chesterfield ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chesterfield / FT Chesterfield✗
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.15
–
Recent results
Newport County – last 6
LDDWDD
24 Oct
@ Cheltenham
0–1
L
20 Oct
@ Rotherham
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs York
1–1
D
10 Oct
vs Colchester
1–0
W
6 Oct
vs Plymouth
2–2
D
3 Oct
@ Gillingham
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Chesterfield – last 6
WDLDWL
24 Oct
vs Crewe
5–1
W
20 Oct
vs Colchester
1–1
D
17 Oct
@ Port Vale
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ Crawley Town
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs Tranmere
4–2
W
26 Sep
@ Cheltenham
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport County and Chesterfield.
What is the prediction for Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Our pick is Chesterfield or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?
On our numbers Newport County have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chesterfield 58%.
How many goals will there be in Newport County vs Chesterfield?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Our predicted score is Newport County 0–1 Chesterfield, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Newport County vs Chesterfield (League Two) kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Rodney Parade.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
