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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Portuguesa v Marcílio Dias: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil · Estadio do Caninde

Portuguesa

DWDWW
2–0
FT

Marcílio Dias

DWDDD
Portuguesa 53%Draw 26%Marcílio Dias 20% Expected goals 1.51 – 0.97
51%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.95 · bookmaker 2.38 · Lost ✗

3/10Rating
2.38Odds

Picks by market

ResultPortuguesa to win ✓53% · @1.57
Double chancePortuguesa or draw ✓80% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.38
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.79

Portuguesa vs Marcílio Dias: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Portuguesa welcome Marcílio Dias to Estadio do Caninde for a Serie D fixture on Saturday 11 July (20:00 WAT).

Current form

Portuguesa, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Marcílio Dias, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Marcílio Dias, last 5: DWDDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Portuguesa, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Portuguesa, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Marcílio Dias.

Head to head

When they last met (4 Jul 2026) it ended Marcílio Dias 1–1 Portuguesa.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Portuguesa 1.5 xG, Marcílio Dias 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Portuguesa 53%, draw 26%, Marcílio Dias 20%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.38.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 2.38 – longer than our fair 1.95, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Portuguesa 1–1 Marcílio Dias. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Portuguesa53%fair 1.87 · @1.57
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.00
Marcílio Dias20%fair 4.93 · @6.00
2.48Expected goals
1.51Portuguesa xG
0.97Marcílio Dias xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–18%

From our goals model: Portuguesa 1.5 – 1.0 Marcílio Dias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPortuguesa to win ✓53%1.871.57
Double chancePortuguesa or draw ✓80%1.251.10
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.952.38 ▲
Draw no betPortuguesa (draw no bet) ✓72%1.38–
Asian handicapMarcílio Dias +1 (Asian handicap) ✗66%1.51–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.41–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓55%1.82–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.31–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
First team to scorePortuguesa to score first ✓56%1.79–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗44%2.28–
Half-time / full-timeHT Portuguesa / FT Portuguesa ✓30%3.35–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.79–

Recent results

Portuguesa – last 6

DWDWWL
4 Jul@ Marcílio Dias1–1D
27 Junvs Sampaio Corrêa RJ1–0W
20 Jun@ Sampaio Corrêa RJ1–1D
6 Junvs Portuguesa RJ2–0W
30 May@ Pouso Alegre2–1W
18 Marvs Paysandu2–3L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Marcílio Dias – last 6

DWDDDD
4 Julvs Portuguesa1–1D
28 Junvs Cascavel2–1W
21 Jun@ Cascavel2–2D
7 Jun@ Independiente FSJ0–0D
24 May@ Sao Jose1–1D
5 Aprvs Independiente FSJ0–0D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

4 Jul 2026Marcílio Dias v Portuguesa1–1
Portuguesa vs Marcílio Dias head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT XV de Piracicaba0 Cianorte0 149%1.85X28%2.90223%4.00 1.3–0.9xG NGNot both teams to score 51%@1.62 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Portuguesa vs Marcílio Dias?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.38.

Who will win Portuguesa vs Marcílio Dias?

On our numbers Portuguesa have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Marcílio Dias 20%.

How many goals will there be in Portuguesa vs Marcílio Dias?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Portuguesa vs Marcílio Dias?

Our predicted score is Portuguesa 1–1 Marcílio Dias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Portuguesa vs Marcílio Dias?

Portuguesa vs Marcílio Dias (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio do Caninde.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.