Value bet: Siarka Tarnobrzeg to win @ 2.62 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSiarka Tarnobrzeg to win ✗41% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗3% · fair 35.57
Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Saturday 26 September: Star Starachowice v Siarka Tarnobrzeg in the III Liga Group 4. In the table, Star Starachowice are 9th, upper half, on 23 points after 16 matches; Siarka Tarnobrzeg are 10th (lower half) with 21. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Star Starachowice, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with KS Wieczysta Krakow II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Podlasie Biała Podlaska, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Siarka Tarnobrzeg, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Star Starachowice.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Star Starachowice 1.3 xG, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Star Starachowice 39%, draw 20%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 41%.
Price worth noting: Siarka Tarnobrzeg to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (51%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Star Starachowice 1–2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Star Starachowice39%fair 2.55 · @2.20
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.60
Siarka Tarnobrzeg41%fair 2.46 · @2.62
2.58Expected goals
1.28Star Starachowice xG
1.31Siarka Tarnobrzeg xG
47%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Star Starachowice 1.3 – 1.3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Siarka Tarnobrzeg to win✗
41%
2.46
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
–
Draw no bet
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Star Starachowice +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Siarka Tarnobrzeg to score first✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Siarka Tarnobrzeg / FT Siarka Tarnobrzeg✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–3✗
3%
35.57
–
Recent results
Star Starachowice – last 6
DLDLDW
19 Sep
@ KS Wieczysta Krakow II
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Wisłoka Dębica
2–3
L
4 Sep
@ Sokół Kolb.
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Jarosław
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Busko-Zdroj
1–1
D
19 Aug
vs Czarni Połaniec
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Siarka Tarnobrzeg – last 6
WDWWWL
19 Sep
vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Chełmianka Chełm
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ KS Wieczysta Krakow II
2–0
W
1 Sep
vs Zaglebie Lubin
3–2
W
29 Aug
vs Wisłoka Dębica
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Sokół Kolb.
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Star Starachowice and Siarka Tarnobrzeg.
What is the prediction for Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
On our numbers Star Starachowice have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Siarka Tarnobrzeg 41%.
How many goals will there be in Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Our predicted score is Star Starachowice 1–2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg (III Liga Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
