Las Palmas 60%Draw 22%Leganes 17%Expected goals 1.77 – 0.82
83%
Betarazi pick
Las Palmas or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Las Palmas to win @ 1.92 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLas Palmas to win ✗60% · @1.92
Double chanceLas Palmas or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.37
Las Palmas vs Leganes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Las Palmas welcome Leganes to Estadio de Gran Canaria for a Segunda División fixture on Friday 4 September (19:30 WAT). In the table, Las Palmas are 10th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Leganes are 18th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Las Palmas, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 2–5 defeat to Girona, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Leganes, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Eldense, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Leganes, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Las Palmas.
Head to head
When they last met (17 Apr 2026) it ended Las Palmas 2–0 Leganes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Las Palmas 1.8 xG, Leganes 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Las Palmas 60%, draw 22%, Leganes 17%.
Lower-risk option: Las Palmas or draw (83%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Las Palmas to win @1.92 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Las Palmas or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Las Palmas 1–0 Leganes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Las Palmas60%fair 1.65 · @1.92
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.30
Leganes17%fair 5.74 · @4.10
2.59Expected goals
1.77Las Palmas xG
0.82Leganes xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Las Palmas 1.8 – 0.8 Leganes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Las Palmas or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Las Palmas vs Leganes?
On our numbers Las Palmas have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leganes 17%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas vs Leganes?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas vs Leganes?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas 1–0 Leganes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas vs Leganes?
Las Palmas vs Leganes (Segunda División) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
