Oviedo v Burgos Prediction & Expected Goals (6 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultOviedo to win ✗60% · @1.91

Double chanceOviedo or draw ✓87% · @1.22

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.65

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.04

Oviedo vs Burgos: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Burgos travel to face Oviedo on Sunday 6 September in the Segunda División, with Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere the venue – the ball rolls at 15:15 WAT. In the table, Oviedo are 9th, upper half, on 21 points after 13 matches; Burgos are 3rd (among the top four) with 24. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Oviedo, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Albacete, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Burgos, last 5: DLWDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Real Sociedad II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Oviedo 1.5 xG, Burgos 0.5 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Oviedo 60%, draw 27%, Burgos 13%.
Lower-risk option: Oviedo or draw (87%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Oviedo to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 60%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Oviedo or draw (87%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Oviedo 1–0 Burgos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Oviedo60%fair 1.67 · @1.91

Draw27%fair 3.66 · @3.00

Burgos13%fair 7.74 · @4.00

2.00Expected goals

1.47Oviedo xG

0.53Burgos xG

49%Both score

32%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–020%

2–015%

0–014%

1–111%

2–18%

0–17%

From our goals model: Oviedo 1.5 – 0.5 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Oviedo to win ✗	60%	1.67	1.91 ▲
Double chance	Oviedo or draw ✓	87%	1.15	1.22 ▲
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	51%	1.96	1.65
Draw no bet	Oviedo (draw no bet)	82%	1.22	–
Asian handicap	Oviedo -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	60%	1.66	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	59%	1.68	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	68%	1.48	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	86%	1.17	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	95%	1.06	–
First team to score	Oviedo to score first ✗	63%	1.58	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	48%	2.08	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Oviedo / FT Oviedo ✗	36%	2.75	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	20%	5.04	–

Oviedo – last 6

WLDWLW

29 Aug	@ Albacete	1–0	W
22 Aug	vs Leganes	0–1	L
15 Aug	vs Granada CF	0–0	D
8 Aug	vs Le Havre	3–2	W
1 Aug	@ 1. FC Nürnberg	1–2	L
29 Jul	vs Ponferradina	4–0	W

1.5Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Burgos – last 6

DLWDLW

31 Aug	vs Real Sociedad II	2–2	D
23 Aug	@ Sporting Gijon	0–1	L
16 Aug	vs Cordoba	3–2	W
8 Aug	vs Cultural Leonesa	0–0	D
1 Aug	vs Athletic Club	0–3	L
29 Jul	@ Unionistas de Salamanca	1–0	W

1.0Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5

Team

Pts

+14

+18

-1

+10

-2

-2

-6

-6

-7

-12

-5

-2

-11

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Oviedo vs Burgos?

Our pick is Oviedo or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Oviedo vs Burgos?

On our numbers Oviedo have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Burgos 13%.

How many goals will there be in Oviedo vs Burgos?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Oviedo vs Burgos?

Our predicted score is Oviedo 1–0 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Oviedo vs Burgos?

Oviedo vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Oviedo v Burgos: numbers & prediction