Burgos 66%Draw 21%AD Ceuta FC 14%Expected goals 2.06 – 0.82
66%
Betarazi pick
Burgos to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultBurgos to win ✓66% · @1.65
Double chanceBurgos or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.23
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:30 WAT, Friday 11 September: Burgos v AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División. In the table, Burgos are 3rd, among the top four, on 24 points after 13 matches; AD Ceuta FC are 22nd (in the drop zone) with 5. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Burgos, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Oviedo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
AD Ceuta FC, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Celta de Vigo II, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Apr 2026) it ended Burgos 1–1 AD Ceuta FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burgos 2.1 xG, AD Ceuta FC 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burgos 66%, draw 21%, AD Ceuta FC 14%.
Lower-risk option: Burgos or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Burgos to win (66%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.52, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burgos 2–0 AD Ceuta FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burgos66%fair 1.52 · @1.65
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.60
AD Ceuta FC14%fair 7.35 · @4.75
2.88Expected goals
2.06Burgos xG
0.82AD Ceuta FC xG
55%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Burgos 2.1 – 0.8 AD Ceuta FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Burgos to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
On our numbers Burgos have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and AD Ceuta FC 14%.
How many goals will there be in Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our predicted score is Burgos 2–0 AD Ceuta FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
