Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Castellón to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultGirona to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.66
Girona vs Castellón: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:30 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Girona v Castellón in the Segunda División, played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi. In the table, Girona are 8th, upper half, on 21 points after 13 matches; Castellón are 2nd (among the top four) with 27.
Current form
Girona, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sporting Gijon, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Castellón, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Albacete, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (29 Jul 2026) it ended Girona 3–3 Castellón.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Girona 1.3 xG, Castellón 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Girona 44%, draw 22%, Castellón 35%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Castellón to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Girona 1–1 Castellón. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Girona44%fair 2.29 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.30
Castellón35%fair 2.89 · @3.10
2.50Expected goals
1.34Girona xG
1.16Castellón xG
61%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–07%
From our goals model: Girona 1.3 – 1.2 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Girona vs Castellón?
On our numbers Girona have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Castellón 35%.
How many goals will there be in Girona vs Castellón?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Girona vs Castellón?
Our predicted score is Girona 1–1 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Girona vs Castellón?
Girona vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
