Leganes vs Castellón: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 28 September the Segunda División brings Leganes against Castellón at Municipal de Butarque. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Leganes are 18th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Castellón are 2nd (among the top four) with 27. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Leganes, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Granada CF, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Castellón, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Tenerife, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Castellón, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.8 for Leganes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leganes 0.9 xG, Castellón 1.2 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leganes 29%, draw 23%, Castellón 48%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leganes 1–1 Castellón. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leganes29%fair 3.39 · @3.00
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.10
Castellón48%fair 2.10 · @2.20
2.08Expected goals
0.86Leganes xG
1.22Castellón xG
57%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Leganes 0.9 – 1.2 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón to win✓
48%
2.10
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.67
Draw no bet
Castellón (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Leganes +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Castellón to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón / FT Castellón✓
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.53
–
Recent results
Leganes – last 6
WLDWWD
20 Sep
vs Granada CF
3–2
W
13 Sep
@ Tenerife
0–2
L
4 Sep
@ Las Palmas
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Eldense
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Oviedo
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Girona
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Castellón – last 6
WWWWDW
19 Sep
vs Tenerife
5–0
W
12 Sep
@ Girona
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Albacete
2–0
W
31 Aug
@ Celta de Vigo II
2–1
W
23 Aug
vs Sabadell
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Real Sociedad II
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leganes and Castellón.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Leganes vs Castellón?
On our numbers Leganes have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Castellón 48%.
How many goals will there be in Leganes vs Castellón?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leganes vs Castellón?
Our predicted score is Leganes 1–1 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Leganes vs Castellón?
Leganes vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Butarque.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
