Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Valladolid to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultValladolid to win ✓63% · @1.80
Double chanceValladolid or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.85
Valladolid vs Leganes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Valladolid welcome Leganes for a Segunda División fixture on Monday 2 November (18:30 WAT). In the table, Valladolid are 12th, lower half, on 18 points after 13 matches; Leganes are 18th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Valladolid, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Covadonga, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Leganes, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mallorca, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Valladolid, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Leganes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Valladolid 1.8 xG, Leganes 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 49%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Valladolid 63%, draw 22%, Leganes 15%.
Lower-risk option: Valladolid or draw (85%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Valladolid to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Valladolid or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Valladolid 1–0 Leganes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Valladolid63%fair 1.59 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.50
Leganes15%fair 6.71 · @3.90
2.50Expected goals
1.78Valladolid xG
0.72Leganes xG
49%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Valladolid 1.8 – 0.7 Leganes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valladolid to win✓
63%
1.59
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Valladolid or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.85
Draw no bet
Valladolid (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Valladolid -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Valladolid to score first
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Valladolid ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valladolid / FT Valladolid✓
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.85
–
Recent results
Valladolid – last 6
WLLWDW
29 Oct
@ Covadonga
1–0
W
23 Oct
@ Granada CF
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Eldense
2–3
L
12 Oct
vs Albacete
5–0
W
4 Oct
@ Las Palmas
2–2
D
27 Sep
vs Cordoba
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Leganes – last 6
DLLLLW
24 Oct
vs Mallorca
1–1
D
16 Oct
vs Cordoba
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Almeria
0–3
L
3 Oct
@ Cadiz
0–4
L
28 Sep
vs Castellón
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Granada CF
3–2
W
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valladolid and Leganes.
Our pick is Valladolid or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Valladolid vs Leganes?
On our numbers Valladolid have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leganes 15%.
How many goals will there be in Valladolid vs Leganes?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valladolid vs Leganes?
Our predicted score is Valladolid 1–0 Leganes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Valladolid vs Leganes?
Valladolid vs Leganes (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
