Value bet: Burgos to win @ 3.36 – our chance 39% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultBurgos to win39% · @3.36
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.46
Leganes vs Burgos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Friday 13 November: Leganes v Burgos in the Segunda División, played at Municipal de Butarque. In the table, Leganes are 18th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Burgos are 3rd (among the top four) with 24. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Leganes, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Trival Valderas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Burgos, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Celta de Vigo II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Burgos, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Leganes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leganes 1.1 xG, Burgos 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leganes 34%, draw 27%, Burgos 39%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Burgos to win @3.36 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 39%.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leganes 1–1 Burgos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leganes34%fair 2.93 · @2.15
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.20
Burgos39%fair 2.56 · @3.36
2.42Expected goals
1.05Leganes xG
1.36Burgos xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Leganes 1.1 – 1.4 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Leganes
Burgos
Attack vs Segunda División average
-30%
+0%
Goals conceded vs average
+20%
-23%
Our expected goals here
0.84
1.42
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burgos to win
39%
2.56
3.36 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.37
1.32
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.99
1.83
Draw no bet
Burgos (draw no bet)
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Leganes +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.31
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.79
1.69
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.31
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
1.03
First team to score
Burgos to score first
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burgos / FT Burgos
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.46
–
Recent results
Leganes – last 6
WLLDLL
10 Nov
@ Trival Valderas
1–0
W
7 Nov
vs Albacete
1–3
L
2 Nov
@ Valladolid
3–4
L
24 Oct
vs Mallorca
1–1
D
16 Oct
vs Cordoba
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Almeria
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 6
WDWWWL
7 Nov
vs Celta de Vigo II
2–1
W
1 Nov
vs Castellón
1–1
D
29 Oct
@ Laredo
4–2
W
26 Oct
@ FC Andorra
3–2
W
18 Oct
vs Sabadell
1–0
W
12 Oct
vs Granada CF
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leganes and Burgos.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leganes vs Burgos?
On our numbers Leganes have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Burgos 39%.
How many goals will there be in Leganes vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leganes vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Leganes 1–1 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Leganes vs Burgos?
Leganes vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Butarque.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
