Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 55% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRayo Vallecano to win ✗45% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.20
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alaves travel to face Rayo Vallecano on Thursday 20 August in the La Liga, with Estadio Municipal de Butarque the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Rayo Vallecano are 14th, lower half, on 12 points after 11 matches; Alaves are 12th (lower half) with 13. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Rayo Vallecano, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Sevilla, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Alaves, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Getafe, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Alaves, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.5 for Rayo Vallecano.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Rayo Vallecano 1.4 xG, Alaves 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Rayo Vallecano 45%, draw 25%, Alaves 31%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.53 – longer than our fair 1.49, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Alaves. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Rayo Vallecano45%fair 2.24 · @2.24
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @2.98
Alaves31%fair 3.24 · @3.45
2.57Expected goals
1.43Rayo Vallecano xG
1.14Alaves xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Rayo Vallecano 1.4 – 1.1 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rayo Vallecano to win✗
45%
2.24
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Rayo Vallecano (draw no bet)
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Alaves +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.04
First team to score
Rayo Vallecano to score first
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rayo Vallecano / FT Rayo Vallecano✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.20
–
Recent results
Rayo Vallecano – last 6
LLWLLL
15 Aug
@ Sevilla
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Ipswich
0–3
L
1 Aug
@ Charleroi
3–2
W
26 Jul
@ Feyenoord
1–2
L
17 Jul
@ Heart Of Midlothian
1–2
L
27 May
@ Crystal Palace
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Alaves – last 6
WDWWDW
15 Aug
vs Getafe
3–0
W
7 Aug
@ Racing Santander
1–1
D
31 Jul
vs Castellón
3–0
W
25 Jul
@ Girona
1–0
W
18 Jul
vs Eibar
1–1
D
17 May
@ Oviedo
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves.
What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
On our numbers Rayo Vallecano have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alaves 31%.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our predicted score is Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Alaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
