Value bet: Alaves to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVillarreal to win ✗42% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.39
Alaves vs Villarreal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Villarreal travel to face Alaves on Friday 28 August in the La Liga, with Estadio de Mendizorroza the venue – the ball rolls at 20:30 WAT. In the table, Alaves are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Villarreal are 8th (upper half) with 15. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alaves, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Rayo Vallecano, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Villarreal, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Atletico Madrid, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (13 Mar 2026) it ended Alaves 1–1 Villarreal.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alaves 1.4 xG, Villarreal 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alaves 36%, draw 21%, Villarreal 42%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Alaves to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alaves 1–1 Villarreal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alaves36%fair 2.77 · @3.10
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.50
Villarreal42%fair 2.36 · @2.18
3.02Expected goals
1.44Alaves xG
1.58Villarreal xG
64%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.4 – 1.6 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alaves vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Alaves have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villarreal 42%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Villarreal?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
