Value bet: Sevilla to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✓45% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.98
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 29 August the La Liga brings Sevilla against Atletico Madrid. Kick-off: 20:30 WAT. In the table, Sevilla are 6th, upper half, on 18 points after 12 matches; Atletico Madrid are 3rd (among the top four) with 28.
Current form
Sevilla, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Athletic Club, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Villarreal, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Sevilla, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Atletico Madrid.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sevilla 1.3 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.6 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sevilla 33%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid 45%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Sevilla to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sevilla 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sevilla33%fair 3.06 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.35
Atletico Madrid45%fair 2.23 · @2.08
2.94Expected goals
1.33Sevilla xG
1.61Atletico Madrid xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Sevilla 1.3 – 1.6 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✓
45%
2.23
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.75
Draw no bet
Atletico Madrid (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Sevilla +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.10
First team to score
Atletico Madrid to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✓
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.98
–
Recent results
Sevilla – last 6
WWLWWW
22 Aug
@ Athletic Club
3–1
W
15 Aug
vs Rayo Vallecano
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Bayer Leverkusen
1–2
L
2 Aug
@ Utrecht
1–0
W
31 Jul
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs AD Ceuta FC
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
DWWLLW
23 Aug
vs Villarreal
2–2
D
19 Aug
vs Malaga
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Marseille
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Manchester City
1–3
L
1 Aug
@ Manchester United
1–2
L
29 Jul
vs Getafe
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Sevilla have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 45%.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Sevilla 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
