Value bet: Not both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCelta Vigo to win ✗58% · @1.73
Double chanceCelta Vigo or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.38
Celta Vigo vs Malaga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 13 September the La Liga brings Celta Vigo against Malaga. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, Celta Vigo are 11th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Malaga are 20th (in the drop zone) with 5.
Current form
Celta Vigo, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Getafe, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Malaga, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Levante, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Celta Vigo 1.2 xG, Malaga 0.5 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 77% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Celta Vigo 58%, draw 26%, Malaga 16%.
Lower-risk option: Celta Vigo or draw (84%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (58%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Not both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Celta Vigo to win (58%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Celta Vigo 1–0 Malaga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Celta Vigo58%fair 1.74 · @1.73
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.40
Malaga16%fair 6.11 · @4.80
1.67Expected goals
1.21Celta Vigo xG
0.46Malaga xG
42%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–023%
0–019%
2–014%
1–110%
0–19%
2–16%
From our goals model: Celta Vigo 1.2 – 0.5 Malaga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celta Vigo to win✗
58%
1.74
1.73
Double chance
Celta Vigo or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Celta Vigo (draw no bet)
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Malaga +1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Celta Vigo to score first✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celta Vigo / FT Celta Vigo✗
32%
3.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
23%
4.38
–
Recent results
Celta Vigo – last 6
DDLLDD
7 Sep
@ Getafe
1–1
D
3 Sep
@ Real Sociedad
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Athletic Club
0–2
L
27 Aug
vs Osasuna
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Valencia
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Napoli
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Malaga – last 6
DLDLDL
6 Sep
vs Levante
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Real Madrid
0–4
L
24 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
1–1
D
19 Aug
@ Atletico Madrid
0–2
L
12 Aug
vs Fulham
2–2
D
7 Aug
@ AD Ceuta FC
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celta Vigo and Malaga.
Our pick is Celta Vigo to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
On our numbers Celta Vigo have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Malaga 16%.
How many goals will there be in Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
Our predicted score is Celta Vigo 1–0 Malaga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
Celta Vigo vs Malaga (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
