Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlaves to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceAlaves or draw ✗86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.25
Alaves vs Valencia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 15 September the La Liga brings Alaves against Valencia at Estadio de Mendizorroza. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Alaves are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Valencia are 19th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Current form
Alaves, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Racing Santander, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Valencia, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sevilla, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Alaves, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.2 for Valencia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alaves 1.9 xG, Valencia 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alaves 60%, draw 26%, Valencia 14%.
Lower-risk option: Alaves or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alaves to win (60%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.67, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alaves 1–0 Valencia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alaves60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.10
Valencia14%fair 7.14 · @4.60
2.70Expected goals
1.87Alaves xG
0.83Valencia xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.9 – 0.8 Valencia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alaves to win✗
60%
1.67
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Alaves or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Alaves (draw no bet)✗
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Alaves -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Alaves to score first✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Alaves ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alaves / FT Alaves✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.25
–
Recent results
Alaves – last 6
LWWDWD
12 Sep
@ Racing Santander
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Osasuna
5–2
W
28 Aug
vs Villarreal
1–0
W
20 Aug
@ Rayo Vallecano
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Getafe
3–0
W
7 Aug
@ Racing Santander
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Valencia – last 6
LLLLDL
11 Sep
@ Sevilla
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Barcelona
0–5
L
30 Aug
@ Deportivo La Coruna
1–3
L
25 Aug
vs Real Betis
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs Celta Vigo
0–0
D
8 Aug
vs Newcastle
1–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Valencia.
Our pick is Alaves to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Alaves vs Valencia?
On our numbers Alaves have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Valencia 14%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Valencia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Valencia?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–0 Valencia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves vs Valencia (La Liga) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
