Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Picks by market
ResultVillarreal to win ✓59% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Malaga vs Villarreal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Malaga welcome Villarreal to La Rosaleda for a La Liga fixture on Thursday 17 September (20:30 WAT). In the table, Malaga are 20th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 12 matches; Villarreal are 8th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
Malaga, last 5: DDLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Celta Vigo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Villarreal, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Real Betis, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Malaga 0.9 xG, Villarreal 1.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Malaga 21%, draw 19%, Villarreal 59%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Villarreal to win (59%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.68, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Malaga 0–1 Villarreal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Malaga21%fair 4.70 · @3.50
Draw19%fair 5.18 · @3.60
Villarreal59%fair 1.68 · @1.95
2.70Expected goals
0.92Malaga xG
1.78Villarreal xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%
From our goals model: Malaga 0.9 – 1.8 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✓
59%
1.68
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.57
Draw no bet
Villarreal (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Malaga +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Villarreal to score first
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Villarreal ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal✓
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Malaga – last 6
DDLDLD
13 Sep
@ Celta Vigo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Levante
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Real Madrid
0–4
L
24 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
1–1
D
19 Aug
@ Atletico Madrid
0–2
L
12 Aug
vs Fulham
2–2
D
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 6
LLLLDD
14 Sep
vs Real Betis
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–3
L
28 Aug
@ Alaves
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Atletico Madrid
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Racing Santander
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malaga and Villarreal.
Our pick is Villarreal to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Malaga vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Malaga have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Villarreal 59%.
How many goals will there be in Malaga vs Villarreal?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malaga vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Malaga 0–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Malaga vs Villarreal?
Malaga vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at La Rosaleda.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
