Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Celta Vigo to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCelta Vigo to win ✗45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.95
Elche vs Celta Vigo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:00 WAT, Sunday 11 October: Elche v Celta Vigo in the La Liga, played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. In the table, Elche are 18th, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 12 matches; Celta Vigo are 11th (lower half) with 13. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Elche, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Espanyol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Celta Vigo, last 5: WLDDD Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Racing Santander, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (3 May 2026) it ended Celta Vigo 3–1 Elche.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Elche 1.4 xG, Celta Vigo 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Elche 32%, draw 23%, Celta Vigo 45%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Celta Vigo to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.65, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Elche 1–1 Celta Vigo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Elche32%fair 3.13 · @2.80
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.10
Celta Vigo45%fair 2.24 · @2.50
3.00Expected goals
1.35Elche xG
1.65Celta Vigo xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
0–27%
1–07%
From our goals model: Elche 1.4 – 1.6 Celta Vigo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Elche vs Celta Vigo?
On our numbers Elche have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Celta Vigo 45%.
How many goals will there be in Elche vs Celta Vigo?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Elche vs Celta Vigo?
Our predicted score is Elche 1–1 Celta Vigo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Elche vs Celta Vigo?
Elche vs Celta Vigo (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
