Espanyol 13%Draw 23%Atletico Madrid 64%Expected goals 0.89 – 2.11
87%
Betarazi pick
Atletico Madrid or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✓64% · @1.75
Double chanceAtletico Madrid or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Espanyol welcome Atletico Madrid to RCDE Stadium for a La Liga fixture on Saturday 17 October (13:00 WAT). In the table, Espanyol are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 12 matches; Atletico Madrid are 3rd (among the top four) with 28. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Espanyol, last 5: DLLWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Malaga, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Manchester United, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Atletico Madrid, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.8 for Espanyol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Espanyol 0.9 xG, Atletico Madrid 2.1 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Espanyol 13%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 64%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Madrid or draw (87%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Atletico Madrid to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Madrid or draw (87%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Espanyol 0–2 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Espanyol13%fair 7.59 · @4.50
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.60
Atletico Madrid64%fair 1.57 · @1.75
3.00Expected goals
0.89Espanyol xG
2.11Atletico Madrid xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Espanyol 0.9 – 2.1 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✓
64%
1.57
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Atletico Madrid or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.73
Draw no bet
Atletico Madrid (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Madrid -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Atletico Madrid to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.13
–
Recent results
Espanyol – last 6
DLLWDL
9 Oct
@ Malaga
1–1
D
18 Sep
vs Elche
1–3
L
15 Sep
@ Rayo Vallecano
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Osasuna
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Sevilla
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Real Sociedad
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WWWWWL
13 Oct
vs Manchester United
2–0
W
10 Oct
@ Alaves
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Real Madrid
2–1
W
16 Sep
vs Osasuna
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Real Sociedad
3–0
W
9 Sep
@ Liverpool
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Espanyol and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Atletico Madrid or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Espanyol have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico Madrid 64%.
How many goals will there be in Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Espanyol 0–2 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at RCDE Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
