Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlaves to win ✗58% · @1.70
Double chanceAlaves or draw ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.79
Alaves vs Malaga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alaves welcome Malaga to Estadio Mendizorrotza for a La Liga fixture on Friday 23 October (20:00 WAT). In the table, Alaves are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Malaga are 20th (in the drop zone) with 5.
Current form
Alaves, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Celta Vigo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Malaga, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 2–5 defeat to Real Sociedad, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alaves 1.7 xG, Malaga 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alaves 58%, draw 24%, Malaga 18%.
Lower-risk option: Alaves or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alaves to win (58%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alaves 1–0 Malaga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alaves58%fair 1.72 · @1.70
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.50
Malaga18%fair 5.47 · @5.00
2.61Expected goals
1.75Alaves xG
0.86Malaga xG
49%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.7 – 0.9 Malaga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alaves to win✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Double chance
Alaves or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.83
Draw no bet
Alaves (draw no bet)
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Malaga +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Alaves to score first✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alaves / FT Alaves✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.79
–
Recent results
Alaves – last 6
LLDLLW
18 Oct
@ Celta Vigo
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs Atletico Madrid
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–0
D
15 Sep
vs Valencia
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ Racing Santander
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Osasuna
5–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Malaga – last 6
LDLLDD
18 Oct
vs Real Sociedad
2–5
L
9 Oct
vs Espanyol
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Getafe
0–1
L
17 Sep
vs Villarreal
1–3
L
13 Sep
@ Celta Vigo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Levante
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Malaga.
Our pick is Alaves to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Alaves vs Malaga?
On our numbers Alaves have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Malaga 18%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Malaga?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Malaga?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–0 Malaga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Malaga?
Alaves vs Malaga (La Liga) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
