Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Sevilla to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSevilla to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceSevilla or draw ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Sevilla vs Alaves: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Friday 6 November: Sevilla v Alaves in the La Liga. In the table, Sevilla are 6th, upper half, on 18 points after 12 matches; Alaves are 12th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Sevilla, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Getafe, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Alaves, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 1–6 defeat to Barcelona, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Sevilla, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Alaves.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sevilla 1.8 xG, Alaves 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sevilla 60%, draw 21%, Alaves 19%.
Lower-risk option: Sevilla or draw (81%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Sevilla to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sevilla or draw (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sevilla 1–0 Alaves. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sevilla60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.88 · @3.50
Alaves19%fair 5.14 · @4.50
2.71Expected goals
1.81Sevilla xG
0.90Alaves xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Sevilla 1.8 – 0.9 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sevilla to win✗
60%
1.67
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Sevilla or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Sevilla (draw no bet)
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Alaves +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Sevilla to score first✗
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Sevilla ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sevilla / FT Sevilla✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.19
–
Recent results
Sevilla – last 6
LWWLDL
1 Nov
@ Getafe
1–3
L
29 Oct
@ Hortaleza
3–0
W
26 Oct
vs Osasuna
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Real Madrid
1–4
L
12 Oct
@ Levante
3–3
D
2 Oct
vs Aston Villa
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Alaves – last 6
LDLLDL
31 Oct
@ Barcelona
1–6
L
23 Oct
vs Malaga
1–1
D
18 Oct
@ Celta Vigo
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs Atletico Madrid
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–0
D
15 Sep
vs Valencia
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevilla and Alaves.
Our pick is Sevilla or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Sevilla vs Alaves?
On our numbers Sevilla have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Alaves 19%.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our predicted score is Sevilla 1–0 Alaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Sevilla vs Alaves?
Sevilla vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
