Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Barakaldo to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBarakaldo to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceBarakaldo or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.18
Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Barakaldo welcome Extremadura 1924 to Campo de Lasesarre for a Primera División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Friday 11 September (18:00 WAT). In the table, Barakaldo are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Extremadura 1924 are 7th (upper half) with 16. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Barakaldo, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to CD Coria, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Extremadura 1924, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Racing Ferrol, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Extremadura 1924, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Barakaldo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Barakaldo 1.7 xG, Extremadura 1924 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Barakaldo 62%, draw 23%, Extremadura 1924 14%.
Lower-risk option: Barakaldo or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Barakaldo to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Barakaldo or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Barakaldo 1–0 Extremadura 1924. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Barakaldo62%fair 1.60 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.20
Extremadura 192414%fair 6.94 · @3.70
2.33Expected goals
1.68Barakaldo xG
0.65Extremadura 1924 xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Barakaldo 1.7 – 0.7 Extremadura 1924 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barakaldo to win✓
62%
1.60
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Barakaldo or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.90
Draw no bet
Barakaldo (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Barakaldo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Barakaldo to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo✓
39%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.18
–
Recent results
Barakaldo – last 6
LDLWLL
5 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Portugalete
0–2
L
9 May
vs Mérida AD
2–0
W
1 May
@ Tenerife
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Extremadura 1924 – last 6
WLDWWW
6 Sep
vs Racing Ferrol
1–0
W
31 Aug
@ UD Logroñés
1–2
L
14 Aug
@ CD Coria
2–2
D
3 May
@ Linares Deportivo
2–1
W
26 Apr
vs La Unión Atlético
4–2
W
29 Mar
vs Deportiva Minera
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barakaldo and Extremadura 1924.
What is the prediction for Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924?
Our pick is Barakaldo or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924?
On our numbers Barakaldo have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Extremadura 1924 14%.
How many goals will there be in Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924?
Our predicted score is Barakaldo 1–0 Extremadura 1924, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924?
Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924 (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Lasesarre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
