Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.91 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.91Odds
Picks by market
ResultLugo to win ✓41% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Lugo vs UD Logroñés: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 12 October the Primera División RFEF Group 1 brings Lugo against UD Logroñés at Estadio Anxo Carro. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Lugo are 1st, leading the league, on 28 points after 11 matches; UD Logroñés are 2nd (among the top four) with 23.
Current form
Lugo, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Real Avilés, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
UD Logroñés, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Deportivo La Coruña II, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lugo 1.5 xG, UD Logroñés 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lugo 41%, draw 25%, UD Logroñés 34%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.71, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lugo 1–1 UD Logroñés. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lugo41%fair 2.42 · @2.40
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @2.80
UD Logroñés34%fair 2.94 · @2.80
2.83Expected goals
1.50Lugo xG
1.33UD Logroñés xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.5 – 1.3 UD Logroñés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugo to win✓
41%
2.42
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Lugo (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
UD Logroñés +1 (Asian handicap)✗
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Lugo to score first
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugo / FT Lugo✓
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.35
–
Recent results
Lugo – last 6
WWWWDW
2 Oct
@ Real Avilés
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Racing Ferrol
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs CD Coria
1–0
W
4 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
UD Logroñés – last 6
WWDWWW
4 Oct
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
2–1
W
27 Sep
@ Mérida AD
5–3
W
18 Sep
vs Pontevedra
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ UD Ourense
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
31 Aug
vs Extremadura 1924
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and UD Logroñés.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Lugo vs UD Logroñés?
On our numbers Lugo have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and UD Logroñés 34%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs UD Logroñés?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs UD Logroñés?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–1 UD Logroñés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs UD Logroñés?
Lugo vs UD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
