Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultPonferradina to win47% · @1.83
Double chancePonferradina or draw80% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score55% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals69% · @1.57
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–020% · fair 4.95
Ponferradina vs Cacereño: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Friday 13 November: Ponferradina v Cacereño in the Primera División RFEF Group 1. In the table, Ponferradina are 11th, lower half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Cacereño are 10th (upper half) with 15. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ponferradina, last 5: DDDDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cultural Leonesa, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Cacereño, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lugo, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Mar 2026) it ended Cacereño 0–0 Ponferradina.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ponferradina 1.0 xG, Cacereño 0.6 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 69%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ponferradina 47%, draw 32%, Cacereño 20%.
Lower-risk option: Ponferradina or draw (80%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.67.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Under 3.5 goals (85%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ponferradina 1–0 Cacereño. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ponferradina47%fair 2.12 · @1.83
Draw32%fair 3.08 · @3.10
Cacereño20%fair 4.90 · @3.90
1.62Expected goals
1.02Ponferradina xG
0.60Cacereño xG
45%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–020%
0–020%
1–112%
0–112%
2–010%
2–16%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.0 – 0.6 Cacereño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Ponferradina
Cacereño
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
-33%
-27%
Goals conceded vs average
-37%
-17%
Our expected goals here
0.77
0.50
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Cacereño 20%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–0 Cacereño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
Ponferradina vs Cacereño (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
