Value bet: Hércules to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultHércules to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.95
Algeciras vs Hércules: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Hércules travel to face Algeciras on Saturday 17 October in the Primera División RFEF Group 2, with Estadio Nuevo Mirador the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Algeciras are 13th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Hércules are 7th (upper half) with 17. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Algeciras, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Europa Fc, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Hércules, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sant Andreu, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Hércules, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Algeciras.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Algeciras 1.1 xG, Hércules 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Algeciras 33%, draw 25%, Hércules 43%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Hércules to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (50%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Algeciras 1–1 Hércules. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Algeciras33%fair 3.07 · @2.62
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @2.75
Hércules43%fair 2.34 · @2.50
2.36Expected goals
1.08Algeciras xG
1.28Hércules xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Algeciras 1.1 – 1.3 Hércules expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hércules to win✗
43%
2.34
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.85
Draw no bet
Hércules (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Algeciras +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Hércules to score first✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hércules / FT Hércules✗
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.95
–
Recent results
Algeciras – last 6
LWWDLL
11 Oct
@ Europa Fc
1–2
L
4 Oct
vs Rayo Majadahonda
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Juventud Torremolinos
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Águilas
1–1
D
11 Sep
@ Gimnastic
2–4
L
4 Sep
@ Villarreal II
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Hércules – last 6
WDWWWL
12 Oct
vs Sant Andreu
1–0
W
3 Oct
vs Real Jaén
0–0
D
26 Sep
@ Águilas
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Juventud Torremolinos
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Europa Fc
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Atlético Madrid II
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algeciras and Hércules.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Algeciras vs Hércules?
On our numbers Algeciras have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Hércules 43%.
How many goals will there be in Algeciras vs Hércules?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algeciras vs Hércules?
Our predicted score is Algeciras 1–1 Hércules, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Algeciras vs Hércules?
Algeciras vs Hércules (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
