Alcorcon vs Real Jaén: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alcorcon welcome Real Jaén to Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo for a Primera División RFEF Group 2 fixture on Saturday 7 November (16:30 WAT). In the table, Alcorcon are 5th, upper half, on 18 points after 11 matches; Real Jaén are 4th (among the top four) with 19. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alcorcon, last 5: DDDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atlético Madrid II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Real Jaén, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Algeciras, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alcorcon 2.0 xG, Real Jaén 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alcorcon 66%, draw 22%, Real Jaén 12%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alcorcon 2–0 Real Jaén. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alcorcon66%fair 1.52 · @1.57
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.60
Real Jaén12%fair 8.39 · @5.00
2.79Expected goals
2.03Alcorcon xG
0.76Real Jaén xG
55%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Alcorcon 2.0 – 0.8 Real Jaén expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcorcon to win✓
66%
1.52
1.57
Double chance
Alcorcon or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.80
Draw no bet
Alcorcon (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Alcorcon -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
1.14
First team to score
Alcorcon to score first
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Alcorcon ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcorcon / FT Alcorcon✗
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.39
–
Recent results
Alcorcon – last 6
DDDLWW
30 Oct
@ Atlético Madrid II
1–1
D
25 Oct
vs Ibiza
3–3
D
16 Oct
vs Huesca
1–1
D
10 Oct
@ Teruel
0–1
L
3 Oct
vs Juventud Torremolinos
5–0
W
27 Sep
@ Real Madrid II
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Real Jaén – last 6
WDWDDL
2 Nov
vs Algeciras
3–2
W
25 Oct
@ Atlético Madrid II
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Rayo Majadahonda
1–0
W
10 Oct
vs Villarreal II
3–3
D
3 Oct
@ Hércules
0–0
D
27 Sep
@ Antequera
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcorcon and Real Jaén.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alcorcon vs Real Jaén?
On our numbers Alcorcon have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Real Jaén 12%.
How many goals will there be in Alcorcon vs Real Jaén?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcorcon vs Real Jaén?
Our predicted score is Alcorcon 2–0 Real Jaén, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alcorcon vs Real Jaén?
Alcorcon vs Real Jaén (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
