Nesebar vs Fratria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 November the Second League brings Nesebar against Fratria at Gradski stadion. Kick-off: 13:30 WAT. In the table, Nesebar are 14th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Fratria are 4th (among the top four) with 25.
Current form
Nesebar, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Ludogorets II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Fratria, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 6–2 win over Sportist Svoge, at home. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Fratria, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.3 for Nesebar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nesebar 1.3 xG, Fratria 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nesebar 30%, draw 22%, Fratria 47%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.63.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nesebar 1–1 Fratria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nesebar30%fair 3.31 · @3.12
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.48
Fratria47%fair 2.11 · @1.94
2.77Expected goals
1.27Nesebar xG
1.50Fratria xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Nesebar 1.3 – 1.5 Fratria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Nesebar
Fratria
Attack vs Second League average
-2%
+20%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-15%
Our expected goals here
1.41
1.43
Our own ratings from every Second League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fratria to win
47%
2.11
1.94
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.71
1.63
Draw no bet
Fratria (draw no bet)
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Nesebar +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.32
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
85%
1.18
1.08
First team to score
Fratria to score first
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fratria / FT Fratria
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.14
–
Recent results
Nesebar – last 6
LLLLDD
8 Nov
@ Ludogorets II
0–2
L
31 Oct
vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1–2
L
23 Oct
@ Hebar 1918
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs CSKA Sofia
0–2
L
10 Oct
vs CSKA Sofia II
0–0
D
4 Oct
@ Rodopa Smolyan
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fratria – last 6
WLLLWW
9 Nov
vs Sportist Svoge
6–2
W
28 Oct
vs Montana
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Botev Vratsa
1–2
L
9 Oct
@ Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0–2
L
3 Oct
@ Balkan Botevgrad
3–0
W
27 Sep
vs Spartak Pleven
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nesebar and Fratria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nesebar vs Fratria?
On our numbers Nesebar have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fratria 47%.
How many goals will there be in Nesebar vs Fratria?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nesebar vs Fratria?
Our predicted score is Nesebar 1–1 Fratria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Nesebar vs Fratria?
Nesebar vs Fratria (Second League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
