Atlético Astorga 25%Draw 53%Portugalete 22%Expected goals 1.25 – 1.18
78%
Betarazi pick
Atlético Astorga or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 53% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +59%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗53% · @3.00
Double chanceAtlético Astorga or draw ✗78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atlético Astorga welcome Portugalete for a Segunda División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Saturday 5 September (17:00 WAT). In the table, Atlético Astorga are 17th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 10 matches; Portugalete are 6th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
Atlético Astorga, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Palencia CF, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Portugalete, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Barakaldo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Portugalete, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for Atlético Astorga.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlético Astorga 1.2 xG, Portugalete 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 48%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlético Astorga 25%, draw 53%, Portugalete 22%.
Lower-risk option: Atlético Astorga or draw (78%) at 1.36.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atlético Astorga or draw (78%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.28, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlético Astorga 1–1 Portugalete. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlético Astorga25%fair 3.99 · @2.40
Draw53%fair 1.88 · @3.00
Portugalete22%fair 4.58 · @2.75
2.43Expected goals
1.25Atlético Astorga xG
1.18Portugalete xG
48%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Atlético Astorga 1.2 – 1.2 Portugalete expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
53%
1.88
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Atlético Astorga or draw✗
78%
1.28
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
–
Draw no bet
Atlético Astorga (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Portugalete +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Atlético Astorga to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlético Astorga / FT Atlético Astorga✗
22%
4.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
9%
11.32
–
Recent results
Atlético Astorga – last 6
LWDLDW
29 Aug
vs Palencia CF
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Salamanca UDS
2–1
W
21 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ La Bañeza
0–2
L
3 May
@ UD Ourense
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Sarriana
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Portugalete – last 6
WWWDWD
14 Aug
vs Barakaldo
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Eibar III
4–2
W
1 Apr
vs Durango
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Aretxabaleta
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Zamudio
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Santurtzi
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Astorga and Portugalete.
What is the prediction for Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
Our pick is Atlético Astorga or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
On our numbers Atlético Astorga have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Portugalete 22%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
Our predicted score is Atlético Astorga 1–1 Portugalete, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
