Peña Sport 20%Draw 51%Utebo 29%Expected goals 1.23 – 1.44
80%
Betarazi pick
Utebo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.40 – our chance 51% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +73%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓51% · @3.40
Double chanceUtebo or draw ✓80% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓12% · fair 8.16
Peña Sport vs Utebo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Utebo travel to face Peña Sport on Sunday 6 September in the Segunda División RFEF Group 2 – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT. In the table, Peña Sport are 11th, lower half, on 12 points after 10 matches; Utebo are 10th (lower half) with 12. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Peña Sport, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mutilvera, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Utebo, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Águilas, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Peña Sport, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.7 for Utebo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Peña Sport 1.2 xG, Utebo 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Peña Sport 20%, draw 51%, Utebo 29%.
Lower-risk option: Utebo or draw (80%) at 1.28.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Utebo or draw (80%, odds 1.28 – longer than our fair 1.24, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Peña Sport 1–1 Utebo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Peña Sport20%fair 5.10 · @3.10
Draw51%fair 1.96 · @3.40
Utebo29%fair 3.39 · @2.00
2.67Expected goals
1.23Peña Sport xG
1.44Utebo xG
50%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Peña Sport 1.2 – 1.4 Utebo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
51%
1.96
3.40 ▲
Double chance
Utebo or draw✓
80%
1.24
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
–
Draw no bet
Utebo (draw no bet)
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Peña Sport +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Utebo to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Utebo / FT Utebo✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✓
12%
8.16
–
Recent results
Peña Sport – last 6
DDWDWW
18 Aug
@ Mutilvera
1–1
D
24 Apr
@ San Juan
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Ardoi
2–0
W
29 Mar
@ Beti Kozkor
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Aoiz
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cortes
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Utebo – last 6
LLWLDL
17 May
@ Águilas
1–2
L
3 May
@ Sestao River
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Ebro
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Real Unión
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Real Zaragoza II
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Deportivo Alavés II
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Peña Sport and Utebo.
Our pick is Utebo or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Peña Sport vs Utebo?
On our numbers Peña Sport have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 51% and Utebo 29%.
How many goals will there be in Peña Sport vs Utebo?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Peña Sport vs Utebo?
Our predicted score is Peña Sport 1–1 Utebo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Peña Sport vs Utebo?
Peña Sport vs Utebo (Segunda División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Castellón II0