Value bet: Peña Sport to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNáxara to win ✓41% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓10% · fair 10.16
Náxara vs Peña Sport: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Saturday 10 October: Náxara v Peña Sport in the Segunda División RFEF Group 2. In the table, Náxara are 16th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 9 matches; Peña Sport are 11th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Náxara, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Barbastro, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Peña Sport, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over SD Logroñés, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Peña Sport, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Náxara.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Náxara 1.4 xG, Peña Sport 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Náxara 41%, draw 22%, Peña Sport 37%.
Price worth noting: Peña Sport to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (52%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Náxara 1–1 Peña Sport. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Náxara41%fair 2.43 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.25
Peña Sport37%fair 2.69 · @3.25
2.62Expected goals
1.35Náxara xG
1.27Peña Sport xG
49%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Náxara 1.4 – 1.3 Peña Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Náxara to win✓
41%
2.43
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
–
Draw no bet
Náxara (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Peña Sport +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
First team to score
Náxara to score first✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Náxara / FT Náxara✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
Náxara – last 6
DLLLWL
27 Sep
vs Barbastro
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Reddis
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Olot
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Barcelona B
0–5
L
14 Aug
@ Haro Deportivo
4–1
W
2 May
@ Eibar II
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Peña Sport – last 6
WLWLDD
3 Oct
vs SD Logroñés
4–0
W
26 Sep
@ Barcelona B
0–4
L
19 Sep
vs Espanyol II
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Manresa
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Utebo
1–1
D
18 Aug
@ Mutilvera
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Náxara and Peña Sport.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Náxara vs Peña Sport?
On our numbers Náxara have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Peña Sport 37%.
How many goals will there be in Náxara vs Peña Sport?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Náxara vs Peña Sport?
Our predicted score is Náxara 1–1 Peña Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Náxara vs Peña Sport?
Náxara vs Peña Sport (Segunda División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
