Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultNumancia to win ✗65% · @1.70
Double chanceNumancia or draw ✗87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.23
Numancia vs Navalcarnero: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Numancia welcome Navalcarnero for a Segunda División RFEF Group 5 fixture on Saturday 24 October (16:00 WAT). In the table, Numancia are 1st, leading the league, on 19 points after 10 matches; Navalcarnero are 7th (upper half) with 16. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Numancia, last 5: DDDWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with CF Talavera, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Navalcarnero, last 5: DDDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Salamanca UDS, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Numancia 1.6 xG, Navalcarnero 0.5 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Numancia 65%, draw 22%, Navalcarnero 13%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Numancia to win (65%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.54, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Numancia 1–0 Navalcarnero. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Numancia65%fair 1.54 · @1.70
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.30
Navalcarnero13%fair 7.79 · @4.50
2.13Expected goals
1.60Numancia xG
0.52Navalcarnero xG
40%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Numancia 1.6 – 0.5 Navalcarnero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✗
65%
1.54
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Numancia or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
–
Draw no bet
Numancia (draw no bet)✗
84%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Numancia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Numancia to score first
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Numancia / FT Numancia✗
39%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.23
–
Recent results
Numancia – last 6
DDDWDW
18 Oct
vs CF Talavera
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Real Ávila
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Getafe II
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Guadalajara
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs A Madrid III
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Navalcarnero – last 6
DDDWWL
18 Oct
@ Salamanca UDS
1–1
D
14 Oct
@ Recreativo Huelva
2–2
D
11 Oct
vs A Madrid III
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ RSD Alcalá
3–1
W
30 Sep
vs Real Murcia
3–1
W
27 Sep
vs Conquense
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Numancia and Navalcarnero.
What is the prediction for Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
Our pick is Numancia to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
On our numbers Numancia have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Navalcarnero 13%.
How many goals will there be in Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
Our predicted score is Numancia 1–0 Navalcarnero, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
Numancia vs Navalcarnero (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
