19:45 WAT, Thursday 27 August: Caen v Bastia in the National 1. In the table, Caen are 3rd, among the top four, on 22 points after 12 matches; Bastia are 13th (lower half) with 15.
Current form
Caen, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Aubagne, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 5. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Bastia, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Versailles, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Caen, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Bastia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Caen 1.7 xG, Bastia 1.3 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Caen 48%, draw 23%, Bastia 30%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caen 1–1 Bastia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Caen48%fair 2.09 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.20
Bastia30%fair 3.38 · @3.00
2.97Expected goals
1.69Caen xG
1.28Bastia xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
2–07%
1–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Caen 1.7 – 1.3 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caen to win✗
48%
2.09
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.70
Draw no bet
Caen (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Bastia +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Caen to score first✗
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caen / FT Caen✗
29%
3.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.66
–
Recent results
Caen – last 6
WLWDWW
20 Aug
vs Aubagne
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Thionville Lusitanos
3–4
L
7 Aug
vs Valenciennes
4–0
W
31 Jul
vs Dieppe
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Al Wakrah
4–1
W
18 Jul
vs Laval
4–2
W
2.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 6
LWLLDD
20 Aug
vs Versailles
2–3
L
14 Aug
@ Aubagne
1–0
W
7 Aug
vs Le Puy Foot
0–2
L
10 Jul
@ Rodez
3–5
L
24 Apr
@ Clermont Foot
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Amiens
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caen and Bastia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Caen vs Bastia?
On our numbers Caen have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bastia 30%.
How many goals will there be in Caen vs Bastia?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caen vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Caen 1–1 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Caen vs Bastia?
Caen vs Bastia (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 27 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
