VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln: numbers & prediction

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:30 WAT, Friday 4 September: VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga, played at MHPArena. In the table, VfB Stuttgart are 8th, upper half, on 12 points after 9 matches; 1. FC Köln are 15th (lower half) with 9. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

VfB Stuttgart, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Bayern München, away. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game.

1. FC Köln, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over 1899 Hoffenheim, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game.

Momentum favours 1. FC Köln, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for VfB Stuttgart.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give VfB Stuttgart 2.9 xG, 1. FC Köln 1.6 xG – a total near 4.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

• 1X2 according to our numbers – VfB Stuttgart 62%, draw 21%, 1. FC Köln 18%.
• Lower-risk option: VfB Stuttgart or draw (82%) at 1.15.
• GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.45.
• Price worth noting: Over 3.5 goals @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (76%, odds 1.35 – longer than our fair 1.31, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FC Köln. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.