Value bet: Bayer Leverkusen to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBayer Leverkusen to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chanceBayer Leverkusen or draw ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗72% · @1.35
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.32
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Bundesliga brings Bayer Leverkusen against RB Leipzig at BayArena. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, Bayer Leverkusen are 5th, upper half, on 16 points after 9 matches; RB Leipzig are 4th (among the top four) with 18. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Bayer Leverkusen, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Celje, at home. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
RB Leipzig, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Hamburger SV, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Bayer Leverkusen, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for RB Leipzig.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bayer Leverkusen 2.5 xG, RB Leipzig 1.6 xG – a total near 4.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 79% and GG at 72%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bayer Leverkusen 55%, draw 23%, RB Leipzig 22%.
Lower-risk option: Bayer Leverkusen or draw (78%) at 1.33.
GG/NG: GG (72%) at 1.35.
Price worth noting: Bayer Leverkusen to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bayer Leverkusen or draw (78%, odds 1.33 – longer than our fair 1.28, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 RB Leipzig. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bayer Leverkusen55%fair 1.81 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.90
RB Leipzig22%fair 4.53 · @3.10
4.17Expected goals
2.53Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.64RB Leipzig xG
72%Both score
79%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
3–17%
2–27%
1–16%
3–26%
1–25%
From our goals model: Bayer Leverkusen 2.5 – 1.6 RB Leipzig expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win✓
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Bayer Leverkusen or draw✓
78%
1.28
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
72%
1.38
1.35
Draw no bet
Bayer Leverkusen (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
RB Leipzig +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
First team to score
Bayer Leverkusen to score first✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayer Leverkusen / FT Bayer Leverkusen✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.32
–
Recent results
Bayer Leverkusen – last 6
WDWLWW
16 Sep
vs Celje
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Union Berlin
4–0
W
29 Aug
@ SV Elversberg
2–3
L
22 Aug
@ SV Wehen
4–0
W
15 Aug
@ Newcastle
2–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
RB Leipzig – last 6
WLLWWL
13 Sep
vs Hamburger SV
5–0
W
10 Sep
@ Como
1–4
L
5 Sep
@ Werder Bremen
1–3
L
29 Aug
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
3–0
W
22 Aug
@ Eintracht Trier
6–0
W
15 Aug
@ Bayern München
1–3
L
2.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig.
What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our pick is Bayer Leverkusen or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
On our numbers Bayer Leverkusen have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and RB Leipzig 22%.
How many goals will there be in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our predicted score is Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 RB Leipzig, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at BayArena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
