Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bayer Leverkusen welcome SC Freiburg to BayArena for a Bundesliga fixture on Sunday 18 October (14:30 WAT). In the table, Bayer Leverkusen are 5th, upper half, on 16 points after 9 matches; SC Freiburg are 3rd (among the top four) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Bayer Leverkusen, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Lech Poznan, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
SC Freiburg, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over FK Jablonec, at home. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bayer Leverkusen 2.6 xG, SC Freiburg 1.4 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 76% for three or more goals, 69% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bayer Leverkusen 62%, draw 19%, SC Freiburg 20%.
GG/NG: GG (69%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (69%, odds 1.50 – longer than our fair 1.45, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bayer Leverkusen62%fair 1.62 · @1.67
Draw19%fair 5.38 · @4.00
SC Freiburg20%fair 5.06 · @4.20
4.00Expected goals
2.57Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.43SC Freiburg xG
69%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
2–26%
2–06%
3–25%
From our goals model: Bayer Leverkusen 2.6 – 1.4 SC Freiburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win✓
62%
1.62
1.67
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
69%
1.45
1.50
Draw no bet
Bayer Leverkusen (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
Bayer Leverkusen to score first
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayer Leverkusen / FT Bayer Leverkusen✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.57
–
Recent results
Bayer Leverkusen – last 6
WWWWDW
15 Oct
@ Lech Poznan
4–0
W
10 Oct
@ FSV Mainz 05
4–3
W
20 Sep
vs RB Leipzig
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Celje
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Union Berlin
4–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
SC Freiburg – last 6
WWWDWW
15 Oct
vs FK Jablonec
3–2
W
11 Oct
vs FC Schalke 04
2–1
W
3 Oct
vs FC Luzern
4–2
W
19 Sep
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
2–2
D
12 Sep
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ SC Paderborn 07
1–0
W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg.
What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
On our numbers Bayer Leverkusen have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 19% and SC Freiburg 20%.
How many goals will there be in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our predicted score is Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at BayArena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
