Value bet: Estrela to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlverca to win ✗43% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.25
Alverca vs Estrela: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estrela travel to face Alverca on Saturday 15 August in the Primeira Liga, with Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Alverca are 11th, lower half, on 12 points after 11 matches; Estrela are 12th (lower half) with 10. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alverca, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to FC Porto, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Estrela, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Sporting CP, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alverca 1.5 xG, Estrela 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alverca 43%, draw 23%, Estrela 34%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Estrela to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alverca 1–1 Estrela. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alverca43%fair 2.30 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.25
Estrela34%fair 2.97 · @3.30
2.73Expected goals
1.47Alverca xG
1.26Estrela xG
52%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Alverca 1.5 – 1.3 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alverca to win✗
43%
2.30
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Draw no bet
Alverca (draw no bet)
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Estrela +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.07
First team to score
Alverca to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alverca / FT Alverca✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.25
–
Recent results
Alverca – last 6
LWLWWD
9 Aug
@ FC Porto
0–2
L
1 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
1–0
W
25 Jul
@ Mafra
0–1
L
22 Jul
vs Estoril
2–0
W
17 Jul
vs CF Os Belenenses
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Estrela – last 6
DWDWLW
8 Aug
vs Sporting CP
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Al-Nassr
4–2
W
29 Jul
@ Maritimo
1–1
D
23 Jul
vs Nacional
2–0
W
18 Jul
vs Casa Pia
1–2
L
15 Jul
vs Naval 1893
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alverca and Estrela.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Alverca vs Estrela?
On our numbers Alverca have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Estrela 34%.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Estrela?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Estrela?
Our predicted score is Alverca 1–1 Estrela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Alverca vs Estrela?
Alverca vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
