Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 52% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBenfica to win ✓77% · @1.17
Double chanceBenfica or draw ✓93% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.20
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.47
Moreirense vs Benfica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Moreirense welcome Benfica to Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas for a Primeira Liga fixture on Wednesday 9 September (20:45 WAT). In the table, Moreirense are 9th, upper half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Benfica are 2nd (among the top four) with 28. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Moreirense, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to FC Porto, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Benfica, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Maritimo, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 3.2 goals per game.
Momentum favours Benfica, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Moreirense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Moreirense 0.8 xG, Benfica 2.7 xG – a total near 3.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 66% and GG at 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Moreirense 7%, draw 16%, Benfica 77%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Moreirense 0–3 Benfica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Moreirense7%fair 14.13 · @13.00
Draw16%fair 6.33 · @7.10
Benfica77%fair 1.30 · @1.17
3.47Expected goals
0.77Moreirense xG
2.70Benfica xG
52%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–310%
1–29%
0–18%
1–38%
0–47%
From our goals model: Moreirense 0.8 – 2.7 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
77%
1.30
1.17
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
93%
1.08
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Benfica (draw no bet)✓
92%
1.09
–
Asian handicap
Benfica -1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
First team to score
Benfica to score first✓
75%
1.33
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
54%
1.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.47
–
Recent results
Moreirense – last 6
LWLDLW
4 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–2
L
30 Aug
@ Casa Pia
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Arouca
0–4
L
9 Aug
vs SC Braga
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–2
L
1 Aug
vs Amarante
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWD
5 Sep
@ Maritimo
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Estoril
2–1
W
27 Aug
@ Aarhus
3–1
W
20 Aug
vs Aarhus
3–1
W
17 Aug
@ Casa Pia
7–0
W
13 Aug
@ Heart Of Midlothian
1–1
D
3.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moreirense and Benfica.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Moreirense vs Benfica?
On our numbers Moreirense have a 7% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Benfica 77%.
How many goals will there be in Moreirense vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is Moreirense 0–3 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Moreirense vs Benfica?
Moreirense vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
